The March predictions peril and the future of Apple leaks

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For the past few years, Apple had been consistently announcing products in the second half of March, including half of all iPads released since 2016. Therefore, it made sense that Apple would continue its trend of early spring announcements — or so we thought. Between the plethora of leaked images and rumored product refreshes, we had everything we needed to predict a March event. Though, we weren’t the only ones, with YouTuber Sam Kohl and analyst Jon Prosser (reliability: 88.46%) both confidently announcing risky wagers betting on March product announcements.

I will shave off my eyebrows if it doesn’t happen on the 23rd

— Jon Prosser (@jon_prosser) March 9, 2021

If AirTags are not announced in March I will start an OnlyFans

— Sam Kohl (@iupdate) March 7, 2021

And so with unilateral agreement and perpetual confidence in the announcement of an event, the highly anticipated morning of March 15 was upon us — exactly a week before the rumored event was to take place and therefore the suggested delivery date for virtual invitations. At the stroke of 9:00 AM PST, the tech world brimmed with excitement for the news to come — yet no invites, only the habitual trolls. One hour later (with confidence starting to waver), still no invites. And so it was, hour by hour until around 1 PM, by which time the prospect of an event seemed lightyears farther away than only hours prior. And it finally sunk in. There would be no invites and (as we later learned) no March event whatsoever; only deflated techies and Jon Prosser’s soon to be shaved eyebrows.

The event was always in April. There was literally never a March event.

Absolutely incredible how Apple managed to give the “March 23” date to myself, Kang (the highest rated source) and L0vetodream at almost the same time.

Huge thanks to the source helping with this 😏

— Jon Prosser (@jon_prosser) March 18, 2021

However, this was no normal loss for leakers. This was one of the greatest collective failures to reliably rumor an event. Not only Prosser, but leakers Kang (reliability: 95.45%) and L0vetodream (reliability: 93.55%) received almost the exact same information from their respected sources at approximately the same time, leading some to believe Apple let slip this information to confuse us and making this let down even more bamboozling. It is those factors that make these happenings so abnormal, as these leakers are quite reputable. If these claims were made by inexperienced, untrusted online hustlers (er, I mean supposed “leakers”), the inaccuracy of the predictions wouldn't be remotely surprising. But the fact that multiple established analysts agreed on the occurrence of an event shocked the public and the media alike, and there were real consequences to be felt. The ramifications of these unprecedentedly imperfect predictions fell upon the leakers and sources themselves but also by every tech news outlet under the sun. Because of the massive mistakes in messaging many organizations made, news sources had to apologize for their publishing of materials that exaggerated the reports of leakers with matching confidence. Now, tech media must take a hard look at the way we echo rumors with added vigor, as it only adds to misunderstandings and straight up false statements that litter the space. However, the silver lining to it all may be that as a whole, we will all learn to change our ways for the better. From analysts and leakers being more thorough with their research and actively working to not portray more confidence in rumors than they intend, to news media not exaggerating those claims further, potentially damaging their own reputation as well as their sources, to avid tech fans and readers not overhyping allegations for themselves nor their followers. For us, that means more diligently updating our reliability ratings (a feature we’ve had since Apple Scoop’s inception) and being more transparent and true to the tone of our sources. After all, we should always take things with a grain of salt — or in some cases, a spoonful.

However, there is but one sliver of hope throughout this public reckoning. In the aftermath of the March 23 event rumors fiasco, new predictions from leakers have been shared regarding dates for a different event, this time in April. While details are scarce, iPad Pro refreshes and AirTags are definitely (or as I should say, might be) on the menu for this impending (possible) event.

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Published to Apple Scoop on 18th March, 2021.